Uruguay en el GPS para invertir en commodities y tierras

Director de fondos de inversión afirma que hay oportunidades de negocios en commodities y tierras fuera de Estados Unidos. "Me limitaría a países claramente estables: Australia, Nueva Zelanda, Uruguay, Brasil, Canadá y Estados Unidos", dijo Jeremy Grantham, estratega jefe de inversión de la firma de valores de Boston GMO.

Grantham tiene unos antecedentes que son imposibles de ignorar: predijo la burbuja de Internet y luego la inmobiliaria. Aunque estas proyecciones lo hicieron ganar la fama de ser un pesimista empedernido, a comienzos de 2009 también les dijo a los clientes de GMO, su firma de gestión de dinero que administra unos US$100.000 millones, que era hora de regresar al mercado. Fue la misma semana que las acciones registraron su mínimo tras el desplome de Lehman Brothers.

Ahora, el oriundo de Yorkshire, en el norte de Inglaterra, y actual estratega jefe de inversión de la firma de valores de Boston GMO, sostiene que el mundo se está quedando sin alimentos y los recursos se encarecerán cada vez más. Detrás de todo esto está el cambio climático.

Rising Commodities Total return over 10 years (2003-2013)

Ante la pregunta realizada por The Wall Street Journal ,Grantham respondio:

Q: What are investors supposed to do?

A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc—you name it. I'd be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn't own coal, and I wouldn't own tar sands. It's hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.

So I wouldn't use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own—and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor's point of view is on very good farmland. It's had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you're prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn't be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries—Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it's in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.

Fuente: Diario el Pais / The Wall Street Journal.

http://www.elpais.com.uy/economia/gente-negocios/uruguay-recomendaciones-inversion-commodities-tierras.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323665504579032934293143524.html